The year of selfishness

I’ve been doing a lot of thinking lately about life and the world. It’s been nothing existential or anything that’s causing this, but it really dawned on me the last few weeks that while I’m not “old” by any means, I’m also no longer “young”.

At 33, I’m entering my middle ages of life and looking to start a family in 2024. I’m more concerned about getting proper sleep this weekend rather than figuring out weekend plans with friends. At the same time, I have no kids or things bogging me down so I can still go on that spur of the moment weekend trip.

I’m also at the point where time is still moving a bit slow meaning that I don’t have kids yet and my schedule isn’t as hectic. I can still be selfish and take a lot more risks than I would when I do have kids. But I also know that time is coming to an end soon if we are lucky.

For that reason, I’m vowing 2024 to be the year of being selfish. Sophia and I will continue to travel and do things that make us happy. For myself, I plan on using 2024 as a year of exploration professionally. I’m still with Secfi on the long-haul, but if there was a time to start a side business or take a risk investing in something, now is the time.

I don’t know what will come out of it. Maybe nothing, but I’d be silly not to take advantage of this time.

Team camaraderie

We’re having our virtual holiday party this morning at Secfi. Of course, we’d all love to be together in one place. But given that we are spread out not just over the country, but also in Europe, it just didn’t make any sense to bring the team together this year.

I greatly miss getting together in person and hanging out like normal humans. There’s nothing like sharing a meal or grabbing a drink with a colleague who you haven’t seen in awhile.

I use a lot of my experience in sports in business and perhaps the most unheralded part of winning teams is team camaraderie. I’ve always placed a lot of emphasis on that since I’ve joined Secfi.

Needless to say, things have been more of a challenge lately the last few years with COVID and then the bear market.

While the virtual holiday party is not ideal, it reminded me how much fun these events can be and also how important it is for all of us to get together.

It’s evident that we need to do a better job of team building in 2024 and that’ll be one of my big focuses.

The world is a big place

I review over 100 inbound requests a week from executives and employees at various startups across the world. I have no idea how that compares to a traditional investor / VC who gets bombarded with inbound for funding, but I do know it’s a ton to sort through every week.

One thing that still shocks me even after 5 years here at Secfi is just how many startups and companies there are that command high valuations (both deserving and non-deserving). Just when I think I’ve seen nearly every late stage company out there, one that I’ve never heard pops up.

Unfortunately, we can’t be invested in everything so we have to pick our battles and areas to focus on. But at this point, nothing gets me more excited than seeing an under the radar company that is quietly marching to a massive exit. That’s what makes sorting through the thousands of requests every year worth it.

We all suck at math

I’m currently reading Morgan Housel’s newest book called Same as Ever. His last book The Psychology of Money was probably one of my favorite reads in the last few years. I was not surprised to see that I’d be hooked into his newest book as well. While the themes build a bit upon his last book, this one strays a bit out of the finance and money world.

I’m only about a quarter of the way through the book, but the first chapter that blew my mind was around probabilities around big events. In summary, Morgan makes a great point in that we all suck at math especially when it comes to large numbers, specifically when calculating probabilities.

For example, a once every hundred year event does not mean it happens once every hundred years, but every year there’s about a 1% chance of that event happening. While those odds are low, combined with all the potential events, the odds of one of those once every hundred a year events happening every year is relatively high.

Given the basic math, we’re going to see a lot of these “low probability” events in our life times. The world hasn’t changed and this has always been the case, but due to the internet, we as humans now believe that the world has gone crazy. In reality, it’s just the world and it has been the same since the beginning of time.

Reading that chapter was one of those simple but thought provoking realizations that I’ll never forget the rest of my life.

All quiet

It sure feels really quiet right now being only December 11th. While there is a lot going on politically and globally, the tech and finance world just seems a bit muted. Perhaps I’m just projecting a bit about how I feel, but my hunch is that a lot of investors have decided to take some extended time off this December.

Personally, I’m feeling tired and ready for an extended break over the holidays. A couple weeks of rest and relaxation is exactly what I need. I don’t have any travel plans for the holidays so I hope to just rest, see friends, golf, and maybe snowboard one time or two.

In terms of work, I’ve got a list of things I need to take care of this week and next so it’s not all fun and games for me for the rest of December. At the same time, this is a very quiet December relative to the last few years and I plan to take advantage. Things will pick up again and I’ve learned to recharge appropriately after all these years.

Reflection on 2023 (goals)

I don’t typically make resolutions every year, but I do make goals. Every year I reflect back on my previous year’s goals and see how that was successful. And then I make goals for the next year. Almost every year, I fail at some of those goals and I’m successful in others. I realize that I’ll never hit every goal especially since most are very ambitious, but even if I come in at 50/50, I’ve had a successful year.

Of course, 2023 was the first year since writing this blog that I didn’t make any goals. I had just gotten married last December and I left for my honeymoon in mid-December. I was a bit burnt out from life and work, that I just really wanted to disappear and not think about anything.

I’ll get back on track this year and I hope to put together a new set of goals for 2024. In the meantime, I wanted to reflect back on 2023 despite not having any official goals, and think about the successes that the year brought.

Learning Mandarin - this was a goal of mine since 2021 and I finally started it in 2023. I took a weekly night class for a couple of months. And I have been practicing on Duolingo every day. My Mandarin isn’t great. But I am proud of myself for giving it a shot and continuing to learn.

Managing work stress and work-life balance - as has been the case the last few years, it’s been a bit up and down in this area. I am proud of myself for how I’ve handled the last year of work however. It hasn’t been easy being a small startup as we’ve gone through a lot. But I have largely not let it affect my personal life too much and that’s something to be proud of. I also took multiple vacations and was able to unwind.

Starting my marriage off right and setting my future family up for success - I am unsure what really defines a success here, but my guess is that we’ve had a successful first year of marriage. After making things official last year, I have shifted my attention a bit to setting my future family up for success. A lot of this is mainly financial as I want to be sure that my family will always be set-up and taken care of. My savings and investment plan for the year has gone well and I hope to continue that going into next year.

Enjoying life - I was fortunate to travel to Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, and Croatia during the year. I know it will likely be harder to travel when I have a family. I’ve realized now is the time to be selfish and I have been dead set on taking advantage of that for as long as possible. I’m happy with the way I’ve been enjoying life.

The case for 2024 optimism

I’m finally feeling a lot better today. Between the month in Croatia, COVID, and an impromptu trip to Vegas, my body was just run down and dead the last few days. I’m planning on a lot of rest and relaxation for the rest of December. If all goes well, 2024 will be a busy and fun year.

As we wrap up the second year of the startup bear market, there’s a lot of reasons for optimism for tech, particularly startups, in 2024.

Despite the rising interest rates and macroeconomic events of the last 2 years, we’ve managed to avoid that dreaded major recession that so many were predicting. We’re not out of the woods yet, but all signs point to the economy continuing to grow despite the higher cost of capital.

Many tech companies have increased guidance going into next year showing a stronger confidence of growth. That was a strong reversal compared to this time last year when many were predicting a recession.

The public markets, particularly the NASDAQ, has been strong in 2023 and there is a lot of optimism that will continue going into 2024. While it won’t be a major IPO year, we expect many tech companies to finally make their debut in 2024.

The public market and IPO momentum should bleed over into the private markets in 2024. There is a lot of dry powder that VCs and investors are sitting on right now that will hopefully make it’s way into hands of companies and individuals through primary and secondary funding rounds.

Valuations in the private markets will likely continue their downward trend, but great companies will continue to grow. With new sources of capital, they can start reinvesting into that growth and hopefully grow into their 2021 valuations.

Anything can happen of course, but I am optimistic heading into the new year. For now, it’s time to rest up.

2023 Undefeated 13-0 Pac-12 Champions

My Washington Huskies continued their dream season by beating rival Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game on Friday. It was a magical night that I’m incredibly grateful to have witnessed live. The entire weekend before the game was just tense all around. Washington and Oregon do not like each other and usually there’s quite a bit of chirping back and forth. This time felt different as both fan bases seemed nervous given the stakes.

We were fighting for the last Pac-12 Championship title ever, a CFP spot, and we both had Heisman finalist quarterbacks. The stakes were never higher in the 100+ years of the rivalry. Fortunately, the Huskies answered the call and came out to a fast start. As goes the story of the season, they seemed to take their foot off the gas and of course let Oregon back in it. But much like the rest of the reason, we kept fighting and pulled it off.

I’ve been to a lot of UW football games and that likely takes the cake for best game I’ve seen. It was a magical night all night and the vibes in Las Vegas carried on to Saturday. Unfortunately, we have now “earned” the #2 seed and a ticket to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans to play Texas. It does not look good for our fans as there’s just not a lot of reasonably priced tickets to New Orleans during the holidays. Texas gets the luxury of being able to make the drive across the border.

It doesn’t matter though. This Husky team has proven to be resilient and battle tested. We’re once again the underdawgs just where we want to be.

On the personal front, I’m still recovering a bit from the last month. I was exhausted from being in Croatia and went right into recovering from COVID at home straight into a trip to Las Vegas where sleep was an afterthought. Sophia is back in SF finally and we plan to take this week and weekend easy. I’m looking forward to it.

26 years ago today - RIP Mom

On December 4th, 1997 my Mom passed away after battling cancer. My Mom was only 36 years old at the time. I was 7 years old at the time and my sister was 4. At that point, my sister and I were too young to really understand what was going on. I just knew that my Mom was gone and wasn’t coming back.

Perhaps the most painful part of her death is that knowing that if she had breast cancer today, she would in all likelihood have lived given modern medicine and science. Unfortunately, this is life and something we cannot control.

My Mom was a great person and she loved her kids. She was selfless and caring. I am fortunate to have some good memories with her before she passed. If she was alive today, I know she would be proud of who my sister and I have become.

As Sophia and I get close to my Mom’s age when she passed, it’s a great reminder to live life to the fullest every day. Life is precious and you have no idea when your time is going to come.

RIP Mom. I love you.

Sports gambling

I’m off to Vegas today to watch my Huskies take on the Ducks in the Pac-12 championship game. It’s going to be really nice to reconnect with friends and have some fun. It was only a little more than a month that we were away in Croatia, but it felt like a lot longer.

On a similar, but related topic… sports gambling is beginning to take off here in the U.S. This football season has been a bit different in that the major networks like ESPN are now actively talking about and promoting gambling. It’s a pretty wild departure from even a few years ago.

The degenerate economy is trending and growing. I don’t gamble often, but I dabble especially when I go to Tahoe or Vegas. By comparison, I’m a very mild gambler but I do love it. I have a hard time not seeing sports gambling grow significantly in the next 5-10 years. Put simply, it’s just too much fun and there’s too much money to be made.

In terms of investing in this trend, my initial thoughts are that the big casinos and existing players will benefit the most. They have the money and means to capture market share quickly. I have been a holder of DraftKings stock for a few years now and I am long.

I have seen quite a few startups raising money that’s trying to capitalize on the trend. Most are startups doing some variation of fantasy or gambling on the games. I do find them interesting, but it seems much more like a flash in the pan. I have a hard time seeing why the big players don’t just implement their own games in their apps to compete directly. For that reason, I’m staying away from angel investments in the space for now.

RIP Charlie Munger

I don’t feel like writing much today. My mind is a bit all over the place this morning.

I was sad to hear the news that Charlie Munger passed away yesterday. In terms of billionaire investors, he’s one of the few that carries very little to no controversy. I’ve never met Charlie nor have I ever been one of those Berkshire Hathaway die-hards, but it’s hard not to like him.

His investing wisdom and philosophy has been and will be studied for generations to come. The legacy he’s left behind is gigantic to say the least. Passing away at 99, he lived a damn great life.

12-0

My Washington Huskies are 12-0 for the first time since 1991. It also marks the first time in the Pac-12 era that someone has gone undefeated in the regular season. That just goes to show just how hard it is to go undefeated in a major conference like the Pac-12, especially this year when the Pac-12 has been so good.

While there’s a lot of jubilant Husky fans like myself celebrating the 12-0 season, we’re all still a little bit on edge because we’ve just won a bit ugly. Ever since beating Oregon in mid-October, we just candidly have not looked very good. Our high powered offense suddenly looks out of sync and we haven’t won comfortably in the last 6 games with at least a few of these games ones that we should’ve won easily.

But yet, we keep winning and we’ve accomplished something that no other team had done in the modern era of our conference. It’s a confusing team and of course I’d feel better if we simply have taken care of business the way we’re supposed to the last few weeks, but at the end of the day, all that matters is that we win.

Perhaps this year’s Huskies team is a bit like growing startups and companies. There’s a ton of imperfection. Things are almost always messy and chaotic. No startups have a pretty road to becoming a lasting company, but all that matters is that they survive and advance.

We’ve got one more big game on Friday to win the last Pac-12 championship game and it’s again our hated rivals Oregon. The game is about to be a bloodbath and I’ll be there live to watch. Go Dawgs!

Back at it

I had a good solo weekend to myself. The covid symptoms were nearly gone by Friday so I was able to just relax and catch-up on things. I put together a puzzle, watched football, and played some video games. Obviously, it would’ve been nice to spend it with family and friends, but maybe this was an odd sign that I really needed a break.

I’m back in the office today after testing negative this morning. It feels great to be back to my second monitor and my set-up. I already feel more productive and ready to go.

At this point, I have a less than a month to rally some things together and close out the year strong. We’ve got a few things in the works that I’m excited about. I want to be ultra focused on the next few weeks and ensure that we close out 2023 strong to build momentum for 2024.

From there, I hope to take a week or two off and really just unwind. It’s been a long year and it’ll be great to have a reset.

Me time

There’s something a bit soothing about being forced to do nothing by yourself. I think it’s because I’m someone that always needs to be doing something and I’m terrible at doing nothing. So sitting here with covid by myself has been kind of nice actually. I can’t remember the last time I had 3 straight days of being by myself and not doing anything.

My days have been mainly just sitting on my couch watching football. I busted out a puzzle to help get me through some of the boring games. And I downloaded Grand Theft Auto V for some video game fun in between games.

Things aren’t so bad. I’m not sure how often I’ll have another time like this again so I’m just trying to enjoy it and take it in stride. I told myself I’d do a quick 30 minutes of work just to catch-up this morning, and then it’s back to me time.

Lots to be grateful for

It’s been a tough month for me. As much as we were able to make the best of it in Croatia, it was more difficult than I thought. We had to cancel trips that we were excited for. I did not get the rest that I was hoping for and really needed. Needless to say, I was excited to get on my flight home today. I was going to make it back in time for Thanksgiving dinner with the family.

Unfortunately, we had more bad news. Sophia texted me mid-flight and let me know that her Dad and Mom both tested positive for covid. I had thought I was battling a cold the last couple of days, but my excitement of finally getting home was nullified with a positive covid test. The good news is that my father in-law is asymptomatic, and my mother in-law and I only have mild symptoms and we’re getting better.

So my tough month continues as I’ll be home by myself over Thanksgiving weekend. I’m not going to lie. This really sucks and I’m bummed. After 4 weeks away from home dealing with a scary situation, the last thing anyone wants is to be bound to my apartment. But that’s life and I also realize that I have a lot to grateful for.

I’m grateful for my wife and her family that I have been lucky to be part of. I am grateful that I have a job that was supportive of me working remote for the last month so I could be there to support. I am grateful for the ability to travel to Croatia and meet some amazing people. I am grateful to be home in my cozy apartment and have the chance to relax and recover in comfort.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good people

One of the main nurses looking after my father in-law has been the sweetest ladies these past few weeks. Her name is Miriam. Her English isn’t amazing by any means, but over the last few weeks she has really developed a bond with my father in-law.

We had a really heartwarming moment here today. As we went to thank her for being amazing, she just mentioned that she wanted to made sure that my father in-law was never lonely. She apparently has been singing to him every night. They also chat about art, ballet, and politics.

Miriam is one of those good people in the world that just loves people. She has no motivation besides wanting to help. The world would be a better place if there were more Miriam’s around.

I have a few more work calls and to-dos to wrap up and then I’m off to see some friends that I’ve made in the last few weeks. I’ll say my goodbyes as I start to make my journey back home tomorrow.

It is a bit bittersweet. When you stay someone for a prolonged period such as we have in Zadar, it’ll also be a place that has meaning to me. Sophia and I are talking about doing a trip back to Croatia next summer/fall. I hope we make it happen.

Wrapping up

It’s officially been 4 weeks here in Croatia today. Sophia decided that it would be best if I left and went home back to San Francisco for Thanksgiving which was nice. Her mom and her will hopefully be headed back to Baltimore later this week as well as the insurance company figure out the best way to get her Dad home.

I leave Wednesday morning for Zagreb. I’ll likely take a 4 hour bus ride as there’s only one flight a day. That will give me the afternoon and evening in Zagreb to check out the city. Then I’ll catch a 6:30am flight to Amsterdam and connect on a flight to San Francisco.

Thankfully it’s a bit of light week of work due to the Thanksgiving holiday. I’ll have a few calls and things to wrap up, but I’m going to try to enjoy the next few days in Croatia a bit. I’ve got a massage scheduled today before my work starts. Then tomorrow, I’m planning on eating my favorite things out here - spitfire roasted lamb and then a sushi dinner. I’ll wrap things up with going to my favorite bar here and saying bye to my friends that I’ve made.

European Healthcare

We’re wrapping up our time here in Croatia as my father in-law’s doctor is writing up a report to send to the insurance that he’s ready to fly home. We’re excited to finally have a date and book a flight. If all goes to plan and we’re out of here next week, we’ll have been here over 4 weeks.

We went to the billing office to check in on the medical bill. Luckily my father in-law had traveler’s insurance so that should cover all their bills for getting home so we weren’t too stressed about the hospital bill. But regardless, it was something that we were worried about as we’ve heard horror stories.

The bill was sent to us and was 2000 Euros. That covers over 4 weeks in the hospital for my father in-law. I honestly couldn’t believe it. I thought they meant 200,000 which candidly is what I’d expect from an American hospital. To put this into perspective, 2000 Euros is less than what Sophia and I paid for our Airbnb here for a month.

It’s obvious that the American healthcare system needs a lot of work. And yes, there’s cost of living adjustments, etc. But it’s honestly ridiculous how much cheaper it is to get proper care here. I hope that we can figure things out. Americans deserve it.

Zadar and the Croatians

After 3 weeks here in Zadar, most of it in Old Town, we finally got a tour of the city from a local. It was something we’ve been talking about for a couple weeks but candidly have been making excuses to do. I’m glad we did. We of course have seen pretty much everything in the city already, but getting a history lesson from a local added a lot more color to the this city we’ve been calling home.

This is a city and country that has been attacked and in war for a large chunk of it’s existence. Perhaps the most devastating attack on the city was by… us during World War 2. In our quest to get rid of the Fascists that originated in Italy, we decided to bomb Zadar. The Fascists soldiers were largely gone and the victims were mostly innocent Croatians. It was a brutal story to hear.

After the war, the area became socialist Yugoslavia. While perhaps it was not the worst victim of communism comparatively to some neighbors, it was very obvious that things did not progress as many Croatians hoped. This all culminated in a brutal war with the Serbs in the early 90s. After the war, Croatia finally became independent albeit losing a lot of land.

Nowadays, Croatia seems to be doing well. Like many people who have experienced recent war, the Croatians just seem happy and content to be living in peace. Things move a lot slower here than back home in the U.S. and the Croatians are happy with that pace of life. There’s a lot to learn from the Croatians.

I’m incredibly grateful that I’ve had the chance to be here. The Croatians have treated me incredibly well and I’m almost like a Zadar local by now. Although I do think I’m ready to go home at this point, I’m still enjoying my time here and I know I’ll be back.

Year-end planning

I couldn’t believe the meal we had yesterday for dinner. Fresh bluefin toro (belly cut) for 24 euro led to about 16 pieces of o-toro and chutoro nigiri, 4 maki rolls, and perhaps a pound of poke. It wasn’t the best made sushi in the world, but we didn’t have all the right tools or ingredients. Regardless the nigiri melted in my mouth and it was great to have some legit Japanese food again.

I felt like I was just doing my year-end financial planning last year, but here we are in November and I’ve got to sit down and do it again for the year ahead.

I’ve got to crunch the numbers this week, but on the surface, we’ve had a good year of savings and should have hit our budget. I’ll be proud if that happens.

I’m also really looking into the tax situation this year. Every year seems to get a bit more complicated when it comes to my capital gains management which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. But I’ve got some losses I need to harvest to offset some gains and that’s money on the table.

I run my analysis around this time of the year to give myself a final look and plan going into the last 6 weeks of the year. That way I can spread out my trades a bit more.